Unfortunately, quite a few nonprofits are in very fragile financial condition and don’t have much elbow room. In other circumstances, I like to work through the possibilities and understand the complexities and reasons behind a nonprofit’s structure and history. Now it’s all about speed.

For example, in the last two weeks I’ve made these very direct and difficult comments to leaders of three different nonprofits:

• Direct comment 1: “I think that your grant budget is unrealistic. I think that you need to create a scenario budget plan to reduce expenses by 30%.”

• Direct comment 2: “Based on your history of recurring operating deficits, you need more than a few expense reductions. You need to reconsider the entire structure of your programs.”

• Direct comment 3: “You don’t have time to research some new grants. You’ll be out of cash in one month.”

Not much finessing here. Because of this need for urgency, we developed a Recession Risk and Preparedness Assessment for nonprofits to quickly identify how urgently they need to act and where to start. These twenty questions cover financial condition, financial information, organizational change factors, and leadership. Use it to find your starting point.

In this week’s issue of The Chronicle of Philanthropy, consultant Pat Nichols described how frustrating it is to watch ineffective and slow reactions to urgent situations in the article A CEO Survival Guide for Touch Times. Because this requires a paid subscription to access, here’s an excerpt of some key points in this excellent piece:

Center all decision making on the mission. If, in facing tough choices, we are not explicit and rigorous about how the decisions we make serve the mission, we have fallen short of our responsibilities.

Be open and engage everyone. Everyone will find this period and the process unsettling. No one, at the outset, can guarantee an outcome. What we can do, though, is find creative means to discuss what is happening and encourage participation from all quarters.

Move quickly but systematically. When uncertainty reigns, people draw comfort from knowing that, though there is no resolution at present, there is rapid and systematic movement toward a resolution.

Be hopeful in style and rigorous in analysis. This balancing act is, perhaps, the toughest of these principles to observe. As leaders, our colleagues depend on us to set a tone, and to convey hope. However, it is also crucial that we ask the tough questions and discount our desire to believe the best.

Live with ambiguity, acknowledge uncertainty. We must act on incomplete and imperfect information; we must make assumptions and decisions that will prove to be wrong. This requires that we acknowledge what we don’t know and be prepared to adjust when we are mistaken.

The time to act is now – for all of us.

“Reading the headlines reflecting concerns and jitters about the direction of the economy is causing leaders of nonprofits to ask how it will affect their organizations. For some people, a state of worry has set in.”

We can now say with certainty that all nonprofit leaders share a deep concern about the rest of this year and the prospects for the next couple of years. In that same blog post I encouraged organizations to understand their income mix and focus on what they could learn about the trends affecting their dominant income sources. Different income sources typically have different triggers and cycles. Foundation grantmaking, for example, changes at a slower pace than individual contributions because foundations calculate their endowment “payout” based on average balances over two years or more, while individuals make giving choices partially based on how confident they feel right now.

A lot has been written, and will be written, about the impact of the economy on nonprofits. Some hopeful news comes from the Philanthropy Journal’s article Past sheds light on recession giving, which notes that overall giving doesn’t drop as much as you might fear. Other stories, however, add to the worry, such as A gloomy giving outlook about corporate giving. I sympathize with the reporters who are writing these stories, though, because the real answer to questions about how the current economic environment is affecting nonprofits is “We don’t know yet.” Every week brings more questions and we all hope that the direction for the future will start to be clearer after the election.

On top of everything else, now is the time for all nonprofits to pay attention to developments that will impact the state budget next year. The forecast doesn’t look good according to the Minnesota Budget Bites blog. State funding dominates for human services, education, and many health care organizations, and it is important for many other nonprofits. This is the time and place to prepare for policy discussions, and you need to be a part of them. It’s easy to stay up to date through the blog and other information and meetings sponsored by the Minnesota Council of Nonprofits.

Because of this uncertainty, and the fact that all the indicators look weak, what had been concern has risen to the point of anxiety.  Emily Saunoi-Sandgren, who blogs at the Humphrey Institute’s new pubTalk blog, wrote Much ado about the economy last week looking for signs that these challenges might lead to some bigger ideas and discussions. Yes, it is time for some big discussions (such as the conversation around public policy and the state budget). Unfortunately, the reality for many nonprofits is that they need to be very cautious and careful.

I’m being blunt here, and it makes me feel like a depressing economics professor, but I have a lot of conversations with nonprofits that don’t have a lot of reserves and so their options are limited. So what’s a nonprofit to do?  Here are some fundamental steps you can take:

• Dig in to analyze what income is reliable and what is not.
• Understand the costs of delivering programs and services.
• Keep close track of increases in demand for services and how much of that increase is driven by the same economic factors.
• Scrutinize any plans for expansion carefully until you are confident that the funding is available to fully support the expansion.
• Double check every assumption.