Reading the headlines reflecting concerns and jitters about the direction of the economy is causing leaders of nonprofits to ask how it will affect their organizations. For some people, a state of worry has set in. I can see why. Today, the StarTribune posted this article on their website, “Chairman Bernanke says Fed ready to cut interest rates again as needed.” The article predicts further cuts to key interest rates “to rescue a weakening economy.” Factors cited included the unemployment rate, weak real estate, tightening credit, and high energy prices. What’s a nonprofit leader to do? Anyone who has worked for a nonprofit for more than three years has experience with a tough economy, so many directors and managers will be well prepared to respond to lean times. But how worried should you be right now and what are your concerns? I think it’s worth a review of the causes and effects that may have a direct impact on your nonprofit organization.
The key is to understand your income mix. There are essentially five distinct sources of nonprofit income and each income source expands or contracts depending on different factors in the economy. If you understand the sources of income that are most important to your organization, then you can focus on following movements and trends that will matter. One overall trend to keep in mind is that the “nonprofit economy” tends to lag the general economy by about a year. Here are some ideas for trend watching the economy.
Program service revenue, or payment for directly providing services, is the largest total source of income for nonprofits. Income from contracts for service, especially from government agencies, is determined based on tax receipts and state and local budgets. We know how many reductions occurred a few years ago and most of these sources haven’t rebounded. If this is your primary income source, the keys are the reports from the state and the budget process. You can track these through the Minnesota Budget Project. To survive with contracts, it’s important to understand the true costs of delivering the services (which is probably not the amount you are paid for delivering the services) and having your eyes open about the need for additional subsidy - and where to get it.
Program service revenue that is paid directly by the user of the service - like tuition, memberships, tickets, and fees – is a lot like business income and reacts to market downturns depending on the buying power of your customer. If your service is considered discretionary, like entertainment, then consumer spending is worth tracking by reading the business section of the paper.
If foundation grants are an important component of your income, watch the stock market. Because endowment payouts are calculated in a way that evens out big increases and decreases, there is no reason to expect a big decrease in 2008. However, pay attention to the excellent surveys and analysis from Minnesota Council on Foundation including Grantmaking Outlook and Giving in Minnesota. If the market performs poorly over time, some reductions in grants could develop. Keep in mind, though, that even with the poor market performance several years ago, grants from Minnesota foundations have increased total dollars almost every year (more details in the MCF reports). If your endowment is an important source of income, the same market trends described above apply.
For nonprofits that rely on individual donors it’s a mixed bag of economic news. This recent online discussion about the Outlook for 2008 hosted by the Chronicle of Philanthropy highlights some opportunities for planned giving and large gifts that transcend the economy, and emphasize the importance of relationships and communications in maintaining a building a donor base.
So don’t assume the worst or start a chorus of woe about the poor economy. Yes, there will be challenges, but you can understand how economic trends will affect your nonprofit. Knowledge is power and will help you anticipate and plan for any changes.