So in the spirit of year end lists, here are five goodbyes for 2011 – and hopes for 2012:

Goodbye

1. State budget impasse and shutdown: Without a doubt the low point of the year for nonprofits was the long budget battles, anxious uncertainty, and the twenty day state government shutdown. While many services were maintained by court decision, nonprofit leaders had to divert their attention to preparing, information gathering, planning, and navigating appeals and systems to survive.
   Silver lining: Nonprofit leaders learned a lot about contingency planning and budgeting which has led many organizations to begin more substantive scenario planning for 2012.
2. School funding shift: For three years, the state budget has shifted part of the funds for public schools to the next year in an accounting maneuver to close budget gaps. As of July 2011 the shift is up to 40%. The impact of this shift on charter schools is particularly difficult because of limited cash reserves and financing alternatives.
   Silver lining: Nonprofits Assistance Fund made our first significant public policy effort to provide data and analysis on the impact of the shift on charter schools. We look forward to more policy involvement in 2012.
3. Information overload: So much data, information, analysis and opinion to read, hear and see. I’ve been pretty overwhelmed this year by it all, but I can’t seem to stop myself. Between printed media (yes, I still read daily papers), online journals, broadcast and cable media, Facebook, and Twitter, I should be as well informed as humanly possible. When I found myself standing by the steps of the capital at 11 pm on June 30th, though, listening to MPR on a tablet computer and reading tweets on my phone, I realized I had fallen into the well.  I had to learn to “curate” for myself (new buzzword alert).
   Silver lining: We have amazing journalists in Minnesota through nonprofit and for-profit media outlets that make their reporting available. My hope for 2012 is that the economic models for high-quality reporting and ideas gain stability and support from all of us who rely on them.
4. Financial crises and closures: A number of nonprofits in Minnesota ran into severe financial problems in 2011 which resulted in major program contraction or closing their doors. The prolonged recession was a big contributing factor, but not the only factor.
   Silver lining: Some board members have woken up to the need to to ask better questions about both short term financial information and long term structure and sustainability. We hope in 2012 to see better financial governance that goes far beyond micromanaging budget variances.
5. Unemployment: We all know too many people who have been laid off by nonprofits, government agencies and businesses in the last three years.  It’s been a loss to have talented, experienced, committed workers sidelined and spending long months or years searching for work.
   Silver lining: There are glimmers that nonprofits are finally being recognized as employers and “job creators”.  As reported in this Nonprofit Quarterly article the nonprofit sector is generating jobs at a faster rate than the private sector. A new advocacy organization, CForward, was formed to “champion the economic role of nonprofits”. We are hopeful that a variety of incentives and policies will be adapted to support the nonprofit sector as an economic force.

My final goodbye for 2011 is to thank all of the staff, volunteers, and board members of nonprofits everywhere for your commitment and effort to help people, build community, create magic, and bring us all together. My hope for 2012 – that all of your organizations are productive, effective, satisfying – and well-funded – in 2012.

State agencies are developing their own plans to suspend operations if necessary, and they are dealing with uncertainty just like the rest of us. Many state grant and contract managers are contacting their nonprofits contractors to alert them to possible disruptions in payments or the risk that any services provided during a shutdown may not be eligible for retroactive payment. How much impact would a state shutdown have on your organization, and what kind of plans to you need? The answer (as always) is “it depends”. This very fluid situation demands multiple versions of “what if … “

• What if … a state agency pays funds to the nonprofits from a source other than the state general fund budget, including federal funds or a designated source? A worst case state shutdown could either stop or slow down payment processing of contracts and grants – you need to create a conservative cash flow plan.
• What if … the nonprofit has a long standing state contract or grant? Even with an active contract or grant, a shutdown would stop payments for the near term, and could cause a longer payment lag due to backlogs and other disruptions. Review the contract terms, or check with the grant manager, to confirm whether or not payments are certain for services provided during a shutdown. You need a plan for cash flow delays including both immediate term and some lag time.
• What if … the nonprofit has an established contract with the state that is signed annually with a start date of July 1st or later? This situation poses more risk to the nonprofit because of uncertainty whether a new budget will include a provision allowing retroactive contracts. The budget passed in July 2005, the time of the last shutdown, included such a provision (thanks to Minnesota Council of Nonprofits). You need to take this risk into consideration as you plan – is this a cash flow delay, or a possible loss of some revenue? Could your organization absorb the reductions if you provide services without retroactive payments?
• What if … the nonprofit has a new state grant or contract that begins July 1st or later, or is waiting for a final approval or announcement for state funds? These funds are at the highest risk as long as there is not a budget in place. Be very cautious about assuming that the terms will be untouched and retroactive once a budget is in place.
• What if … your nonprofit doesn’t rely on state funds, or receives small amounts from the state? Rather than feel relieved, think about the impact a shutdown may have on your clients, other organizations with whom you partner, and other community services. You may see a ripple effect in new requests for service, higher demand, or service disruptions elsewhere. Spend a little time brainstorming how your organization might be affected and how you could respond.

The what ifs could go on and on. The only way to answer any of them, and many nonprofits have more than one state contract or grant, is to systematically review the terms, check with grant managers (while they’re still available) and consider the options. In some cases, the options may fall into three categories: tough, tougher, and toughest. The Minnesota Council of Nonprofits is communicating policy information, news, and resources through email and a page on their web site. Nonprofits Assistance Fund is working with MCN to sponsor six free Government Shutdown Emergency Briefings around the state that will include background of how we got to this point, crisis communications techniques, financial planning, and open discussion with your peers. Register through the MCN web site.

How concerned should you be? I think that we’re probably all concerned about the broad policy question and impact on the state. How worried should you be in your role as a nonprofit staff or board member? If you receive funds that flow from the State of Minnesota, you should be very worried. There are a lot of variables to consider and information to sort out, and it’s hard to accurately predict exactly how the state government would manage the shutdown if it happens. At the time of the shutdown in 2005 some services were declared “essential” as described in the MPR article, but don’t rely on those decisions made by a different administration. Budget Commissioner Jim Showalter has said that a shutdown this year could be “much, much more extensive.”

We are urging all nonprofits that rely on payments from the state to develop a worst case contingency plan as soon as possible, with an emphasis on one thing: CASH.

Here are our recommended steps:

1. Do you have revenue that comes to you directly from the State of Minnesota? Do you have revenue that is indirectly from the state, even if it is paid to you through another entity, such as a county, a collaborative, or partner?
2. If you do receive state funds, how much do you expect to receive in July and August? What would be the impact if you do not receive any of these payments in July and August?
3. Now is the time to update your cash flow projection or create your first one. We have two good resources, the guide to Managing Cash Flow and the cash flow template (Excel) that you’ll find in the Nonprofits Assistance Fund resource library. If you need some help developing your projection, Contact Us to talk with one of our staff.
4. Do you have internal cash accounts or reserves that could handle the cash flow gap?
5. Do you have a line of credit available that could cover the cash flow gap? Would the loss of state payments affect your ability to access your credit line? If you don’t know, find out.
6. If nonpayment would impact your agency’s ability to maintain services, meet payroll obligations, or sustain basic operations, you need a cash plan fast. To be prepared, consider managing cash flow starting now to accumulate a temporary cash cushion even if you don’t have reserves.

If the cash flow projection gives you bad news, be prepared. There may be very tough choices to make about temporary service reductions, staff furloughs, or expense reductions or delays. There may be ways to lessen the impact with advance planning. That’s what contingency planning is for. Don’t wait.

“Reading the headlines reflecting concerns and jitters about the direction of the economy is causing leaders of nonprofits to ask how it will affect their organizations. For some people, a state of worry has set in.”

We can now say with certainty that all nonprofit leaders share a deep concern about the rest of this year and the prospects for the next couple of years. In that same blog post I encouraged organizations to understand their income mix and focus on what they could learn about the trends affecting their dominant income sources. Different income sources typically have different triggers and cycles. Foundation grantmaking, for example, changes at a slower pace than individual contributions because foundations calculate their endowment “payout” based on average balances over two years or more, while individuals make giving choices partially based on how confident they feel right now.

A lot has been written, and will be written, about the impact of the economy on nonprofits. Some hopeful news comes from the Philanthropy Journal’s article Past sheds light on recession giving, which notes that overall giving doesn’t drop as much as you might fear. Other stories, however, add to the worry, such as A gloomy giving outlook about corporate giving. I sympathize with the reporters who are writing these stories, though, because the real answer to questions about how the current economic environment is affecting nonprofits is “We don’t know yet.” Every week brings more questions and we all hope that the direction for the future will start to be clearer after the election.

On top of everything else, now is the time for all nonprofits to pay attention to developments that will impact the state budget next year. The forecast doesn’t look good according to the Minnesota Budget Bites blog. State funding dominates for human services, education, and many health care organizations, and it is important for many other nonprofits. This is the time and place to prepare for policy discussions, and you need to be a part of them. It’s easy to stay up to date through the blog and other information and meetings sponsored by the Minnesota Council of Nonprofits.

Because of this uncertainty, and the fact that all the indicators look weak, what had been concern has risen to the point of anxiety.  Emily Saunoi-Sandgren, who blogs at the Humphrey Institute’s new pubTalk blog, wrote Much ado about the economy last week looking for signs that these challenges might lead to some bigger ideas and discussions. Yes, it is time for some big discussions (such as the conversation around public policy and the state budget). Unfortunately, the reality for many nonprofits is that they need to be very cautious and careful.

I’m being blunt here, and it makes me feel like a depressing economics professor, but I have a lot of conversations with nonprofits that don’t have a lot of reserves and so their options are limited. So what’s a nonprofit to do?  Here are some fundamental steps you can take:

• Dig in to analyze what income is reliable and what is not.
• Understand the costs of delivering programs and services.
• Keep close track of increases in demand for services and how much of that increase is driven by the same economic factors.
• Scrutinize any plans for expansion carefully until you are confident that the funding is available to fully support the expansion.
• Double check every assumption.